Probability

A container holds $3$ green marbles and $5$ yellow marbles. One marble is randomly drawn and discarded. Then a second marble is drawn. Find the probability that the second marble is yellow, given that the first marble was green.


Total number of marbles $= 8$

The first marble can be selected in $8$ ways; the second marble can be selected in $7$ ways.

Let $A$ be the event of drawing the first marble (green).

Let $B$ be the event of drawing the second marble (yellow).

$\therefore \;$ P(selecting a green marble) $= P \left(A\right) = \dfrac{3}{8}$

$1$ yellow marble can be selected from $5$ yellow marbles in $5$ ways

$\therefore \;$ P(selecting a yellow marble) $= \dfrac{5}{7}$

$\left(A \cap B\right) = \;$ event of selecting a green \textbf{AND} a yellow marble

$\therefore \;$ $P \left(A \cap B\right) = \dfrac{3}{8} \times \dfrac{5}{7}$

Now, P(selecting a yellow marble given that the first marble is green)

$= P \left(B|A\right) = \dfrac{P \left(A \cap B\right)}{P \left(A\right)} = \dfrac{\dfrac{3}{8} \times \dfrac{5}{7}}{\dfrac{3}{8}} = \dfrac{5}{7}$