Probability

The lost property office at a mainline station records items left on trains handed in in two categories: Category A is clothing and Category B is paperwork.

Over a period of time the mean number of items in category A handed in per day is $2$ and the mean number in category B per day is $3$.

These distributions may be assumed to be independent of each other and each may be modeled by the Poisson distribution.

Find the probability that

  1. in one day there are no items handed in;
  2. in one day there is exactly one item handed in;
  3. in one day there are at most 2 items handed in.


Mean number of items in category A handed in per day $= 2$

Mean number of items in category B handed in per day $= 3$

The number of items handed in per day, in category A and category B, are both modeled by the Poisson distribution.

$\therefore \;$ Parameter of Poisson distribution for both categories together $= \lambda = 2 + 3 = 5$

  1. $P\left(\text{No items are handed in}\right)= P \left(X = 0\right)$

    $\begin{aligned} P \left(X = 0\right) & = \dfrac{e^{- \lambda} \times \lambda^0}{0!} \\\\ & = e^{- \lambda} \\\\ & = e^{- 5} = 0.0067 \end{aligned}$

  2. $P \left(\text{exactly 1 item handed in}\right) = P \left(X = 1\right)$

    $\begin{aligned} P \left(X = 1\right) & = \dfrac{e^{- \lambda} \times \lambda^1}{1!} \\\\ & = e^{- \lambda} \times \lambda \\\\ & = e^{- 5} \times 5 \\\\ & = 0.0067 \times 5 = 0.0335 \end{aligned}$

  3. $P \left(\text{at most 2 items handed in}\right) = P \left(X \leq 2\right)$

    $\begin{aligned} P \left(X \leq 2\right) & = \sum \limits_{x = 0}^{2} \dfrac{e^{- \lambda} \times \lambda^{x}}{x!} \\\\ & = e^{- \lambda} \times \left[\dfrac{\lambda^{0}}{0!} + \dfrac{\lambda^{1}}{1!} + \dfrac{\lambda^{2}}{2!}\right] \\\\ & = e^{- 5} \times \left[1 + \dfrac{5}{1} + \dfrac{5^2}{2} \right] \\\\ & = 0.0067 \times 18.5 = 0.1240 \end{aligned}$