Probability

Bag $A$ contains $5$ white, $6$ black balls and bag $B$ contains $4$ white, $5$ black balls. One bag is selected at random and one ball is drawn from it. Find the probability that it is white.


Let $A_1$ be the event of selecting bag $A$.

Let $A_2$ be the event of selecting bag $B$.

Let $B$ be the event of selecting a white ball.

To find: P(of selecting a white ball) $= P \left(B\right)$

Now, $A_1$ and $A_2$ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

$\therefore \;$ $P \left(B\right) = P \left(A_1\right) \times P \left(B | A_1\right) + P \left(A_2\right) \times P \left(B | A_2\right)$ $\;\;\; \cdots \; (1)$

Probability of selecting bag $A = P \left(A_1\right) = \dfrac{1}{2}$

Probability of selecting bag $B = P \left(A_2\right) = \dfrac{1}{2}$

P(selecting a white ball when bag $A$ is selected) $= P \left(B | A_1\right)$

$P \left(B | A_1\right) = \dfrac{{^{5}}{C}_{1}}{{^{11}}{C}_{1}} = \dfrac{5}{11}$

P(selecting a white ball when bag $B$ is selected) $= P \left(B | A_2\right)$

$P \left(B | A_2\right) = \dfrac{{^{4}}{C}_{1}}{{^{9}}{C}_{1}} = \dfrac{4}{9}$

Substituting the values of $P \left(A_1\right)$, $P \left(A_2\right)$, $P \left(B | A_1\right)$ and $P \left(B | A_2\right)$ in equation $(1)$ we have,

$P \left(B\right) = \left(\dfrac{1}{2} \times \dfrac{5}{11}\right) + \left(\dfrac{1}{2} \times \dfrac{4}{9}\right) = \dfrac{89}{198}$